diff --git a/CHANGELOG.md b/CHANGELOG.md
index 527e1a29a..29dbedfaa 100644
--- a/CHANGELOG.md
+++ b/CHANGELOG.md
@@ -1,5 +1,11 @@
 # Changelog
 
+- CCTV cameras whose bearing is a guess now say so. Packs mark bearings derived
+  from a hash of the camera id as `headingConfidence: 'low'`, but nothing read the
+  flag, so roughly 70% of a default catalog rendered like surveyed facings. The HUD
+  now reads `HDG n° (ESTIMATED)` and the coverage wireframe draws dashed; manual
+  calibrations and curated poses are never marked estimated (bassem chagra, #643).
+
 - Report which upstream declined a Street Traffic road load. The layer row now
   reads `Overpass rate-limited`, `Overpass timed out`, or
   `Overpass refused the road query (HTTP 406)` instead of a general
diff --git a/docs/CURRENT-STATE.md b/docs/CURRENT-STATE.md
index 59f021aba..fdb42fc0c 100644
--- a/docs/CURRENT-STATE.md
+++ b/docs/CURRENT-STATE.md
@@ -3384,6 +3384,12 @@ silently demoting every later lookup for the session.
 - **The DENSE chip reports the dense LOAD, not the catalog param.** The param flips synchronously while the Starlink shell takes seconds to arrive over a chunked load, and CelesTrak 502s that feed regularly. So the chip reads `DENSE ···` (busy, disabled) while loading, ACTIVE only once dense points are actually on screen, and `DENSE ✕` with the reason on hover when the load fails — a failure also reverts `catalog` to `core`, drops any partial chunk, and leaves the chip clickable to retry. A load is judged by points added, not by HTTP status: a 200 carrying an empty body, a passed-through HTML error page, or only TLEs the core catalog already owns fails with the same revert semantics as a 502. Any explicit request for `core` clears a latched error even when the mode does not change, so a Space Missions restore of an already-core snapshot never leaves the user with a failure they did not cause. Because the load settles asynchronously, the layer pushes a re-render through the optional `setRowControlsListener()` hook; nothing else would repaint that row before the 5-minute catalog refresh, so the count and legend would otherwise sit stale.
 - **A dependency owner takes the row with it.** Space Missions borrows this layer for TLE lookup with `showPoints:false`; while points are hidden the layer returns empty row controls, so the legend never describes an empty sky and the chip cannot accept a write that the owner's restore would silently revert.
 - The detection-overlay record cache (`_detectionObjects`) is cleared with the catalog on every rebuild: it stamps id/class at creation only, and a rebuild can re-tag a satellite when a partial CelesTrak outage changes which group wins dedupe.
+- **CCTV estimated bearings:** a camera whose pack marks `headingConfidence: 'low'` (the id-hash
+  `fallbackHeadingFromId` bearing) shows `HDG n° (ESTIMATED)` in the HUD and draws its coverage
+  wireframe dashed; colours, widths and active/idle emphasis are unchanged. A manual calibration
+  (`calSource: 'manual'`) or curated pose (`poseSource: 'curated'`) is never presented as
+  estimated, matching the CAL badge. Public camera state carries `headingConfidence` and
+  `headingEstimated` (`src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.js`, #639).
 - **FIRMS**: no ground clamping (zero 3D-tiles height sampling), ≤18 screen-decluttered ambient labels, click-to-inspect detail card, 2.5k/3k sprite budgets viewport-clipped by FRP.
 - **CCTV v2 foundation:** a pitched
   frustum wireframe (4 corner rays + far-cap rectangle) with a monitor plane at the frustum's
diff --git a/scripts/package-boundaries.json b/scripts/package-boundaries.json
index 8e9c9a61c..189192f10 100644
--- a/scripts/package-boundaries.json
+++ b/scripts/package-boundaries.json
@@ -1072,6 +1072,7 @@
       "src/layers/cctv/geometry.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/geometryQueue.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/ground.js",
+      "src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/health.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/hover.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/index.js",
@@ -1488,6 +1489,7 @@
       "src/layers/cctv/geometry.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/geometryQueue.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/ground.js",
+      "src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/health.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/hover.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/index.js",
@@ -2127,6 +2129,7 @@
       "src/layers/cctv/geometry.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/geometryQueue.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/ground.js",
+      "src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/health.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/hover.js",
       "src/layers/cctv/index.js",
diff --git a/src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.js b/src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.js
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..a42297e28
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.js
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+/**
+ * @module headingConfidence
+ *
+ * Consumers for the catalog's per-camera `headingConfidence` flag (#639).
+ *
+ * Packs whose feed publishes no facing get a synthetic bearing from
+ * `fallbackHeadingFromId` — a hash of the id string, with no geographic
+ * input — and are marked `headingConfidence: 'low'`. Until now nothing read
+ * the flag, so a guessed bearing rendered exactly like a surveyed one. These
+ * helpers make the guess visible: the HUD heading token gains an
+ * `(ESTIMATED)` tag and the coverage wireframe draws dashed instead of solid.
+ *
+ * A human-vouched pose always wins over the pack flag: a manually saved
+ * calibration (`calSource:'manual'`) or a hand-authored catalog entry
+ * (`poseSource:'curated'`) is never presented as estimated, mirroring the
+ * CAL badge states in calibration.js.
+ */
+
+/**
+ * Whether a camera's bearing is a synthetic guess that should present as
+ * provisional.
+ * @param {{headingConfidence?: string|null, calSource?: string|null,
+ *   poseSource?: string|null}} camera - Catalog camera (or public state).
+ * @returns {boolean}
+ */
+export function isHeadingEstimated(camera) {
+  if (!camera) return false;
+  if (camera.calSource === 'manual') return false;
+  if (camera.poseSource === 'curated') return false;
+  return (
+    String(camera.headingConfidence || '')
+      .trim()
+      .toLowerCase() === 'low'
+  );
+}
+
+/**
+ * HUD heading token: `HDG 194°`, tagged `(ESTIMATED)` when the bearing is
+ * synthetic — so a hash can never read as a surveyed facing.
+ * @param {{headingDeg?: number, headingConfidence?: string|null,
+ *   calSource?: string|null, poseSource?: string|null}} camera
+ * @returns {string}
+ */
+export function headingHudToken(camera) {
+  const hdg = Math.round(Number(camera?.headingDeg) || 0);
+  return `HDG ${hdg}°${isHeadingEstimated(camera) ? ' (ESTIMATED)' : ''}`;
+}
diff --git a/src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.test.mjs b/src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.test.mjs
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..513bf0d1b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.test.mjs
@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+// src/layers/cctv/headingConfidence.test.mjs
+// Bearing-provenance consumers (#639): a pack's headingConfidence:'low'
+// (a hashed synthetic bearing) must present as estimated — unless a human
+// vouched for the pose via manual calibration or a curated catalog entry.
+import { test } from 'node:test';
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
+import { isHeadingEstimated, headingHudToken } from './headingConfidence.js';
+
+test('low confidence marks the bearing estimated', () => {
+  assert.equal(isHeadingEstimated({ headingConfidence: 'low' }), true);
+});
+
+test('confidence matching is trimmed and case-insensitive', () => {
+  assert.equal(isHeadingEstimated({ headingConfidence: ' LOW ' }), true);
+  assert.equal(isHeadingEstimated({ headingConfidence: 'Low' }), true);
+});
+
+test('medium, high, missing, and absent cameras are not estimated', () => {
+  assert.equal(isHeadingEstimated({ headingConfidence: 'medium' }), false);
+  assert.equal(isHeadingEstimated({ headingConfidence: 'high' }), false);
+  assert.equal(isHeadingEstimated({}), false);
+  assert.equal(isHeadingEstimated(null), false);
+  assert.equal(isHeadingEstimated(undefined), false);
+});
+
+test('a manually saved calibration overrides a low pack flag', () => {
+  assert.equal(
+    isHeadingEstimated({ headingConfidence: 'low', calSource: 'manual' }),
+    false,
+  );
+});
+
+test('a curated catalog entry overrides a low pack flag', () => {
+  assert.equal(
+    isHeadingEstimated({ headingConfidence: 'low', poseSource: 'curated' }),
+    false,
+  );
+});
+
+test('HUD token tags a synthetic bearing and rounds the degrees', () => {
+  assert.equal(
+    headingHudToken({ headingDeg: 194.4, headingConfidence: 'low' }),
+    'HDG 194° (ESTIMATED)',
+  );
+});
+
+test('HUD token stays untagged for surveyed and calibrated bearings', () => {
+  assert.equal(
+    headingHudToken({ headingDeg: 67.5, headingConfidence: 'high' }),
+    'HDG 68°',
+  );
+  assert.equal(
+    headingHudToken({
+      headingDeg: 225,
+      headingConfidence: 'low',
+      calSource: 'manual',
+    }),
+    'HDG 225°',
+  );
+});
diff --git a/src/layers/cctv/presentation.js b/src/layers/cctv/presentation.js
index 1ee54df50..f8f83fcd1 100644
--- a/src/layers/cctv/presentation.js
+++ b/src/layers/cctv/presentation.js
@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { CCTV_AMBIENT_CARD_MAX } from '../../data/cctvLod.js';
 import { ACTIVE_FRAME_REFRESH_MS, IDLE_FRAME_REFRESH_MS } from './policy.js';
+import { headingHudToken, isHeadingEstimated } from './headingConfidence.js';
 
 export function createPresentation({
   state: layerState,
@@ -35,7 +36,9 @@ export function createPresentation({
     return [
       `${active.camera.city.toUpperCase()} CCTV`,
       `${active.camera.name.toUpperCase()}`,
-      `HDG ${Math.round(active.camera.headingDeg)}°`,
+      // A synthetic bearing (headingConfidence 'low', no human calibration)
+      // is tagged so a hashed guess never reads as a surveyed facing (#639).
+      headingHudToken(active.camera),
       `FOV ${Math.round(active.camera.fovDeg)}°`,
       `COVERAGE ${area.toFixed(2)}km²`,
       overlapCount > 0 ? `OVERLAP ${overlapCount} cams` : 'ISOLATED VIEW',
@@ -76,6 +79,11 @@ export function createPresentation({
       lat: camera.lat,
       lon: camera.lon,
       headingDeg: camera.headingDeg,
+      // Bearing provenance (#639): the pack's confidence flag plus the derived
+      // "is this a synthetic guess" bit (calibration-aware), so UI consumers
+      // never have to re-derive it.
+      headingConfidence: camera.headingConfidence || null,
+      headingEstimated: isHeadingEstimated(camera),
       pitchDeg: camera.pitchDeg,
       fovDeg: camera.fovDeg,
       rangeM: camera.rangeM,
diff --git a/src/layers/cctv/rendering.js b/src/layers/cctv/rendering.js
index faac69eb8..6601d938b 100644
--- a/src/layers/cctv/rendering.js
+++ b/src/layers/cctv/rendering.js
@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import * as Cesium from 'cesium';
 import { horizonOccluder } from '../../data/iconOrientation.js';
+import { isHeadingEstimated } from './headingConfidence.js';
 import {
   ACTIVE_CAMERA_COLOR,
   IDLE_CAMERA_COLOR,
@@ -233,6 +234,15 @@ export function createRendering({
       );
 
       const inVisibleSet = coverageVisible.has(record.camera.id);
+      // A synthetic bearing (headingConfidence 'low', no human calibration)
+      // draws its wireframe dashed so a guessed facing is visibly provisional
+      // rather than rendering identically to a surveyed one (#639). Colors,
+      // widths, and the active/idle emphasis are unchanged.
+      const bearingEstimated = isHeadingEstimated(record.camera);
+      const lineMaterial = (color) =>
+        bearingEstimated
+          ? new Cesium.PolylineDashMaterialProperty({ color })
+          : color;
       for (const entity of record.coverageEntities || []) {
         // The frustum wireframe is part of the projection representation —
         // force it on for the active camera and let it read through geometry
@@ -247,13 +257,15 @@ export function createRendering({
         // active camera keeps its width/alpha emphasis in both schemes.
         const hue = viewshedOn ? record.viewshedColors : null;
         if (entity._coverageRole === 'cap') {
-          entity.polyline.material = hue
-            ? isActive
-              ? hue.lineActive
-              : hue.line
-            : isActive
-              ? ACTIVE_COVERAGE_CENTER
-              : IDLE_COVERAGE_CENTER_MUTED;
+          entity.polyline.material = lineMaterial(
+            hue
+              ? isActive
+                ? hue.lineActive
+                : hue.line
+              : isActive
+                ? ACTIVE_COVERAGE_CENTER
+                : IDLE_COVERAGE_CENTER_MUTED,
+          );
           entity.polyline.width = isActive ? 2.2 : 1.0;
           entity.polyline.depthFailMaterial = planeShowing
             ? hue
@@ -261,13 +273,15 @@ export function createRendering({
               : ACTIVE_COVERAGE_CENTER_DEPTHFAIL
             : undefined;
         } else {
-          entity.polyline.material = hue
-            ? isActive
-              ? hue.lineActive
-              : hue.line.withAlpha(0.6)
-            : isActive
-              ? ACTIVE_COVERAGE_EDGE
-              : IDLE_COVERAGE_EDGE_MUTED;
+          entity.polyline.material = lineMaterial(
+            hue
+              ? isActive
+                ? hue.lineActive
+                : hue.line.withAlpha(0.6)
+              : isActive
+                ? ACTIVE_COVERAGE_EDGE
+                : IDLE_COVERAGE_EDGE_MUTED,
+          );
           entity.polyline.width = isActive ? 1.8 : 0.9;
           entity.polyline.depthFailMaterial = planeShowing
             ? hue